Economic Survey for Latin America and the Caribbean 2008-2009
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UN)
The publication of the sixty-first edition of the Economic Survey of
Latin America and the Caribbean, corresponding to 2008-2009, comes at a
critical point in the economic development of the Latin American and
Caribbean region. A growth phase that the region’s recent history
cannot equal in nature and duration has come to an end and output is
contracting. The toll this state of affairs is taking on the well-being
of the population will inevitably be reflected in setbacks in social
variables. Two traits set the current situation apart from the many
crises that have beset the region in decades past. First, this crisis
did not originate in the region or even in another emerging economy,
but in the world’s largest economy, whence the effects spread
worldwide, albeit with significant differences among countries and
regions. Second, since the countries have (albeit with major
exceptions) reduced their debt and built up their reserves during the
boom years, the region overall is better prepared than in the past, and
than other regions this time around, to tackle the crisis. These
traits, in turn, have two implications. First, the rate of contraction
forecast for 2009 is relatively moderate although, again, with sharp
differences among the countries of the region. Second, the recovery
depends to a great extent on an upturn in the global economy overall.
The first part of this edition of the Economic Survey looks at the
channels through which the crisis is affecting the economies of the
region and its impact on variables such as economic growth, employment
and external-sector indicators. It also discusses the strengths and
weaknesses of the countries in dealing with the fallout from the global
crisis and the economic policies they have deployed to this end. The
analysis covers the performance of the region’s economy in 2008 and the
first semester of 2009 and concludes with a discussion of the outlook
for the second half of the year. This chapter draws on an extensive
statistical appendix.
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