POLITICAL CONTEXT OF THE IRAN CRISIS By Paul Rogers. Source: Oxford Research Group
Iran Nuclear power United States of America Israel-Palestine Trackbacks (0)Conclusion
While there is much uncertainty, given the complexities of the political context in all three countries, it is reasonable to conclude that there is a particular risk of some kind of military confrontation in the six months to September. This is in spite of the many voices in the United States, Western Europe, and even Israel, that are calling for restraint. It is certainly likely to be
a time of considerable tension, and in such circumstances the so-called “AIM” factor becomes important – Accidents, Incidents and Mavericks. Any one of these factors might exacerbate a crisis, and this means that it is particularly important to work for an easing of the tensions. Ifthat happens and a conflict is avoided in the coming months, then there is a good chance that
negotiations in a calmer atmosphere next year might meet with success.
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